THE mortgages variables with annual review which are updated with the March Euribor They will be resurrected. Although experts predicted that this might be the month in which maturities would begin to decrease, the truth is that Euribor continues to resist a return to the level necessary to make these maturities cheaper.

The indicator is on track to close the month around 3.72%, above the 3.647% with which a year ago, which will lead to a further increase in the prices of these annual review loans which are updated with the March Euribor. While there is one day left to close its March price – Friday is a public holiday – the indicator yesterday reached a monthly average of 3.719% after yesterday it closed at a price of 3.684%.

The slight advance of 2% compared to its price a year ago will mean that those who review their variable mortgage every year and do so in April will experience a slight increase: they will barely pay 5.35 euros more per month (64.20 euros more per year) for an average mortgage loan in Spain, which represents an increase of 0.66%2, according to calculations by Kelisto.es, a site specializing in product comparison.

Inflation

As he explains Joaquín Robles, XTB analyst“the difficulty of stabilizing inflation around 2% has caused an adjustment of expectations regarding the expected reductions [de los tipos de interés por parte del Banco Central Europeo] for this year. The variable rate mortgage benchmark has stabilized in the 3.75% area while awaiting the next inflation data to justify a rate cut during the month of June,” explains Robles.

The euro zone’s general CPI moderated to 2.6% during the month of February, the lowest level since last November. However, it remains above the 2% target set by the ECB. In the case of Spain, the inflation has been suffered in March, up to 3.2%, since in February it moderates for six decades, to 2.8%, due to the reduction of energy, after the indicator has been published publicly. for him National Institute of Statistics (INE). Core inflation – which measures prices without taking into account food and energy – however fell to 3.3% after 3.5% last month.

Energy

The INE explained that the progress of the IPC, which María Jesús Montero, Minister of Finance, described as “punctual”; This is mainly due to rising electricity and fuel pricescompared to the decline they recorded in March 2023. Gasoline, for example, chained eight consecutive increases until its prices stabilized last week.

In the case of electricity, its price has been pushed up by the increase in VAT from 5% to 10%, even reaching 21% this month due to its low prices on the wholesale market. From January, the government increased the VAT applied to electricity from 5% to 10%. But in the months following those where its cost on the wholesale market does not reach 45 euros/MWh, 21% will be applied, except for very vulnerable consumers or threatened with exclusion. And that’s precisely what happened in February.

On the contrary, adds the statistical institute, the prices of food products and non-alcoholic drinks stand out, the prices of which have increased less than in the same month of the previous year.

Next drops

When will the long-awaited reduction in variable mortgages with annual review arrive? XTB considers that Euribor will continue to trade around current levels until there is further evidence of the start of rate cuts by the ECB.

The analysts of Ebury, global fintech specializing in international payments and currency exchangethey also believe that it will be necessary to wait June for Euribor which begins to fall significantlydate on which the European Central Bank should begin “the long-awaited cycle of monetary easing”.

However, Fee reductions could happen next month if the indicator remains at current levels given that Euribor closed April 2023 at 3.757%, slightly above the current average.

“The first reductions in mortgage loans revised annually could occur in April-May if the slight downward trend recorded by Euribor in the last days of March continues and, above all, because on this date the indicator would begin already to be compared to the figures for spring 2023, where a very pronounced upward trend has begun,” he explains. Estefanía González, spokesperson for Kelisto.es. Regardless, “the messages issued by the ECB at its next meeting in April will be decisive in the direction we consider in the coming weeks,” concludes González.

“We are in a moment of stability at the level of interest rates, which implies that the Euribor also records slight declines from one month to the next, like those we saw in November and December of the last year, which are then offset by further increases like “the ones we are seeing now and the ones we saw in February. And until the ECB lowers rates, there will be no decisive movements in Euribor because the difference between the two values ​​is already very high,” he concludes. Simone Colombelli, director of mortgage lending at mortgage comparator and advisor iAhorro.

By wbu4c

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *